也許就是現在，或者不久的某一刻（the not-so-distant future），上週末參加球隊訓練的科比將會復出NBA比賽。以ESPN上提到的專業醫學（medical professionals）視角來看一下從跟腱斷裂中復出的NBA球員歷史也許可以給我們一些指導。

通過聯盟給職業籃球研究（the Association for Professional Basketball Research）的羅伯特布拉德利的一份清單，不難發現從1990年起直到科比之前一共有25名球員在其NBA生涯中遭受過跟腱斷裂。（其中90年代的中鋒史丹利羅伯茨經歷過兩次跟腱斷裂）。他們之中的八個從沒再打過NBA或者只打了很少的幾場比賽,在德雷塞爾大學的調差研究中製造了嚇人的退役率（the scary-looking retirement rate）。除了以賽亞托馬斯在受傷前宣佈了退役，其他的球員都是醬油型。其中的考特尼亞歷山大和埃隆普羅非特兩個人打過訓練營或者在海外打球，但是從沒再成為nba的一員。他們之中只有兩個回到了NBA——包括埃爾頓布蘭德—在賽季末期回歸併打出了有意義的數據。移除了羅伯茨，在其第二次跟腱斷裂回歸的兩年後離開了NBA。

因為每一名球員都是獨一無二的，對科比來説更是如此。歷史時能對未來預測(predicting the future)這麼多，儘管這樣，也該謹慎期待科比的回歸。如果他真的退步了，看待這個實際問題我們不應當失落，如果他回來後在和以前一樣優秀，我們可以更加感到驚喜和開心。

It might come tonight, or more likely not for a few weeks. But at some point in the not-so-distant future, Kobe Bryant, who returned to practice last weekend, will play an NBA game. So, what can we expect from Bryant? Along with the insight of medical professionals, the history of NBA players coming back from Achilles ruptures can offer a general guide.

With the help of a list compiled by the Association for Professional Basketball Research's Robert Bradley, I've found 25 players before Bryant who suffered ruptured Achilles during their NBA careers since 1990. (One of them, 1990s center Stanley Roberts, did so twice.) Of them, eight never played in the NBA again or retired after a handful of games, producing the scary-looking retirement rate researchers at Drexel University cited in their study of Achilles ruptures. Other than Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas, who had announced his retirement before the injury, the other players were largely fringe types. Two of them, Courtney Alexander and Laron Profit, played in training camps or overseas but simply never made an NBA roster again. Of the players who did return to the NBA, two more -- including Elton Brand -- came back too late in the season to produce meaningful statistics. I've also removed Roberts, who was two years removed from the NBA when he returned from his second Achilles rupture.
Bcause each player is unique -- and that's certainly true for Bryant -- history can only go so far in predicting the future. Nonetheless, managing expectations for Bryant's return is the right course of action. Being realistic about his likely decline will keep Bryant from disappointing if he does suffer a drop-off and gives him the chance to pleasantly surprise if he can return at anything resembling his previous form.

☆☆☆☆☆五星級詞彙及短語
☆ the not-so-distant future 不久的將來；
☆ medical professionals 醫療專家；
☆ the Association for Professional Basketball Research 職業籃球研究；
☆ the scary-looking retirement rate  嚇人的退役率；
☆ retirement rate退休率；
☆ scary  (事物）可怕的；恐怖的；嚇人的；
☆ predict the future 預測未來。