One of this week's biggest risk events is the US Fed meeting -- what views did economists at the forum hold on the subject?
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said late last month that a U.S. interest rate increase in the next few months "would be appropriate," but that left many guessing whether and when the Fed will make a move. Panelists at the Lujiazui Forum argued that the Fed will not move right now given a sluggish US jobs report last month, but rather in July and December.
"There was a very bad job report last month, which probably would cause some pause by the Fed because right now the strongest thing in the US economy is the labor market," Michael Mcdnough, Chief Economist at Bloomberg Intelligence said, "Getting a job report as bad as it was is gonna make them wait and see what happens next month.We think the Fed is only going to increase the interest rate twice this year, first time being in July and the second time being in December."
The latest U.S. jobs report showed only 38,000 more people being employed on non-farm payrolls in May, the lowest increase in at least five years. Statements from Fed officials indicate that is giving the US central bank pause in its plans for a rate rise. And there is also the question of whether a US rate hike is good for the global economy as a whole.
"Everybody is paying attention to whether there will be an interest rate hikes," Lian Ping, Chief Economist, Bank of Communications said, "and what we should do if the rate increases or does not. In fact there is enough global liquidity right now, and the problem is that this uncertainty is itself a bad influence on the market. Does the United States really need an interest rate hike to boost its economy? I don't think so. There is no strong reason for the U.S. to move."
The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and so could announce a decision -- or not -- overnight Wednesday China time.