LDP likely to be in disarray after Japan election: analyst

by Richard Smart

TOKYO, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) -- As an Aug. 30 election around the corner, for the first time in five decades a single, large party has a chance of taking power from the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan. Many may wonder how such a dramatic change can come about.

"This is a huge moment in Japan due to an implosion of the governing party," said Koichi Nakano, an associate professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo.

According to Nakano, over the long term, the LDP has suffered a decrease in popularity that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001-2006) could only hold back, but could not reverse. Now, as the first lower house election approaches since the "postal vote," which Koizumi's party won in a landslide, few expect anything other than a heavy loss for the LDP, which has already lost its majority in the upper house in a 2007 election.

"Before Koizumi came to power," Nakano said, "the LDP was not in good shape at all. But he managed to save them from disgrace at that time, and he lasted for five years. But after he was gone, the magic was over. And the LDP basically wasted his legacy, and we now know that the Koizumi reforms were not all that wonderful either, given that they have aggravated the gap in inequality among the Japanese public."

During Koizumi's tenure, the LDP implemented a number of reforms favorable to business, including the privatization of the post office, a loosening of labor laws and free-market policies. At the time, the widespread support that the Koizumi government received was viewed as a mandate for these policies, though now, many analysts see that support been based on a desire to see a tired Japanese governmental system reinvigorated -- an argument that even members of the DPJ have used to argue for their "seiken kotai" (political change).