Full coverage: 2016 Central Economic Work Conference
The annual Central Economic Work Conference maps out economic and reform plans for 2017. Chinese leaders promised on Friday to further promote supply-side reform in 2017 while also pushing state sector and fiscal reform.
How should we assess the recovery this year and what are the challenges ahead? Our reporter Ming Tian talked to economists and market observers and filed this report.
It is widely agreed that China’s economy has strengthened from the soft patches it experienced early in the year. Many key sectors such as investment and industrial production seem to have bottomed out and picked up speed since September.
China's GDP grew 6.7 percent for the first three quarters, and is on track to meet the government's annual growth target. But economists say pressures remain and it's too early to tell if the worst is over.
Bottom does not mean to the high speed. Maybe it is flat. It has only reached bottom, it doesn't mean we are going up.
"The monthly investment figures are volatile. What matters most is the private investment growth is still much lower than GDP growth, lower than investments by SOEs, by the public sector."said Jurgen Conrad,head of economic unit,China Resident Mission,Asian Development Bank.
Analysts say the Chinese government implemented policy moves to spur growth this year, including construction spending and tax credits. But it may take time for the effects to finally trickle down to private players.
"We have seen major support from policy fronts, including fiscal policies. The implementation is faster and the amount is higher than before. We should keep on watching whether the fiscal revenues could pump into the real economy, whether government initiatives could drive private sectors into infrastructure building. Markets are watching over the effectiveness of the policies, and its drive on private investment."said Gu Yongtao,senior strategist of Cinda Securities.
Economists say that for 2017 the imminent headwinds come from easing in real estate investments and uncertainty from China's trade partners.
"Housing sales are going down. It remains to be seen how much that will really weaken housing and real estate investment and what that means for growth, employment and local government revenues. That is challenge number one."said Jurgen Conrad.
"Protectionism is the tendency for the world. At the G20 in Hangzhou, this is the danger. We see a stagnation of globalization, even a decline."said Cao Yuanzheng,chairman of Bank of China Int'l Research Company.
Many experts believe China still needs to accelerate the tempo of its structural reform over the long run. The experts say they expect coordinated measures in state firms, taxation, and even social security to help achieve the goal.