The World Bank released its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update on Monday. The update says East Asia Pacific growth remains resilient in the face of a challenging global environment but that careful macroeconomic management and structural reforms are key to maintaining strength.
The East Asia and Pacific Update is the global lender's review of the region's economies and it's published twice yearly. It says that growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific is expected to ease only modestly during the 2016 to 2018 period. But, the outlook is on shaky grounds and will be subject to elevated risks.
The new World Bank report urges countries to continue to prioritize monetary and fiscal policies that reduce shocks and deepen structural reforms. Remember: this is a crucial moment for the developing East Asia and Pacific, as the region accounted for almost two-fifths of global growth in 2015. That's more than twice the combined contribution of all other developing regions.
The World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Economic Update examines the region’s growth prospects against a challenging backdrop:
Slow growth in high-income countries, a broad slowdown across emerging markets, weak global trade, persistently low commodity prices, and increasingly volatile global financial markets.
Growth in developing East Asia is expected to ease from 6.5 percent in 2015 to 6.3 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017-18.
The forecast also reflects China’s gradual shift to slower, but more sustainable growth, expected to be 6.7 percent in 2016 and 6.5 percent in 2017.
Not including China, the region’s developing countries grew 4.7 percent in 2015.
And the pace of growth will pick up slightly to 4.8 percent in 2016 and 4.9 percent in 2017-18. That's according to the global lender’s latest forecast.
However, the outlook for the individual countries varies depending on their trade and financial relations with high-income economies and China, as well as their dependence on commodity exports.
Among the large developing Southeast Asian economies, the Philippines and Vietnam have the strongest growth prospects. Both are expected to grow by more than 6% in 2016.
In Indonesia, growth is forecast at 5.1% in 2016 and 5.3% in 2017, thanks to recent reforms and implementation of an ambitious public investment program.
In China, the report calls for more financial market reforms, the breaking up of the monopolies held by state-owned enterprises, and reforming the household registration “hukou” system.
It also urges to shift public spending towards education, health, and environmental protection.
The World Bank's update comes as the Asian Development Bank last month forecast China’s gross domestic product growth at a more bearish rate of 6.5% in 2016 and to ease further to 6.3% next year. In 2015, GDP growth was 6.9% and 7.3% in 2014.
Interesting also is to shed light on the region's smaller players such as Laos, Mongolia, and Papua New Guinea, which will all continue to be affected by low commodity prices and weaker external demand. Cambodia's growth will be slightly below 7% during 2016-18, reflecting weaker prices for agricultural commodities and moderating growth in tourism.
In the Pacific Island Countries, growth is likely to remain moderate. Across the region, the World Bank says there is a growing need for prudent fiscal policy to guard against future external shocks. Countries should adopt monetary and fiscal policies that reduce their exposure to global and regional risks. They should also continue with structural reforms to boost productivity and promote inclusive growth.
Over the longer term, the report also calls for governments to maximize the benefits of the digital revolution by boosting competition and helping workers adapt their skills to the demands of the new economy. Back to you.