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| WHO Revises SARS fatality ratio |
| CCTV.COM 2003-05-09 16:05:21 |
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The global death toll from SARS climbed over 500, and 7,000 were reported infected on Thursday. And earlier on Wednesday the World Health Organization revised its estimates of the case fatality ratio of SARS. The overall estimate of case fatality was doubled from the original 6 to 10 percent to 14 to 15 percent.
The revision is based on an analysis of the latest data from Canada, China, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore and Vietnam. Based on data received by WHO to date, experts pointed out that the case fatality ratio is closely related to age of the patient. WHO now estimates that the fatality ratio of SARS ranges from near zero to 50 percent in different age groups.
"We now know that the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1 percent in persons aged 24 years or younger, six percent in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15 percent in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50 percent in persons aged 65 years or older," said Dr. David Heymann with WHO.
WHO also said the likelihood that a person will die of SARS could be influenced by factors related to the SARS virus, the route of exposure, and amount of virus, personal factors, such as age or the presence of another disease, and access to prompt medical care.
However, an absolute value is calculated only at the end of the disease, taking into account total deaths, recoveries and people lost to follow－up.
WHO also concluded that the current best estimate of the maximum incubation period is 10 days.
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Editor: Han Ling CCTV.com
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