Tuesday´s Democratic primaries crucial, but unlikely to be conclusive

Source: Xinhua | 05-07-2008 15:50

By Yang Qingchuan

WASHINGTON, May 6 (Xinhua) -- Sen. Barrack Obama of Illinois and rival Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York are competing fiercely in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries Tuesday, the latest critical day in the Democratic presidential nomination race.

For front-runner Obama, the primaries present an opportunity to wipe out doubts about him being a "flawed" candidate in the general election.

It could also be an opportunity for Clinton to make the case that Democratic voter sentiment is swinging in her favor, and thereby cut into Obama's lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote.

The results of Tuesday's primaries will be important for both candidates.

After all, the largest number of national convention delegates are at stake now than during the remaining primary season.

There are 72 convention delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina.

However, barring the most unexpected-- a blowout in either state, or twin victories by either Obama or Clinton -- the more likely outcome is a continued and inconclusive fight.

THREE SCENARIOS

There are basically three likely scenarios at the end of Tuesday's primaries.

First, Clinton wins Indiana and North Carolina. But analysts say this scenario will be most unlikely, based on pre-election polls.

Obama seems to hold a formidable advantage in North Carolina where African Americans account for a large chunk of Democratic voters while Clinton's best chance is to win Indiana with the support of white blue-collar workers.

Scenario number two: Obama wins North Carolina and Indiana, which would almost certainly mean lights out for the Clinton campaign.

Clinton can keep fighting but the pressure will probably be insurmountable.

Several of her advisers have said they would counsel her to quit the race if she lost both.

However, recent surveys show Clinton is gaining momentum in Indiana and she led Obama in pre-election polls.

The third likely outcome is that candidates split the votes, with Clinton winning Indiana and Obama winning North Carolina, which would almost surely mean the struggle will continue.

This is the most likely outcome, given the demographic patterns in the Democratic race.

Obama has consistently claimed the allegiance of young voters, African Americans and voters who are better educated and wealthier.

Clinton has equally strong backing from women, less-educated voters and the economically hard-pressed.

In states where Obama's demographic groups hold sway, he wins. Where Clinton's do, she is victorious.

If the pattern holds, that makes Obama the favorite to win North Carolina and gives Clinton the edge in Indiana.

That scenario would give each candidate incentive to keep running at least until June 3, the last day of the primary season.

"As long as he wins where he's supposed to win, and she wins where she's supposed to win, the nature of the race is fundamentally unchanged," said Ben Tulchin, a Democratic pollster watching the race from the sidelines. "And so it continues."