China exceeds 8% growth by the end of Sept: official

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The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has forecast the country's GDP growth rate will reach 8.3 percent in 2009, fulfilling its whole year target. The think tank made the prediction in its 2009 autumn report released on Saturday. The document also suggests that the government find new growth points for the country.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says fixed-asset investments, boosted by the government's stimulus packages, have driven China's economic growth. The body expects FAI totals to stand at more than 22 trillion yuan this year ... with an actual growth rate of 34.4 percent. That's more than twice last year's figure.

The academy also forecast the retails sales value to increase 16 percent and top 1.2 trillion yuan. Both imports and exports will be lower than in 2008, but the situation should improve next year.

Wang Tongsan, economist of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "The 8.3 percent annual growth rate this year will exceed the target by 0.3 percent. We expect the GDP to rebound to 9 percent, or higher, in 2010."

Meanwhile, the think tank is downplaying concerns over inflation this year or next year. It says that weak demand will continue to put downward pressure on prices, and the problem of over-capacity will continue to linger.

Wang Tongsan said, "The Consumer Price Index will be negative this year. But it will move into positive territory next year at around 3 percent. The prices will maintain stability for quite some time."

The CASS also says that China's growth still relies too much on investment. With an increase in fixed-asset investments, the proportion of consumption in the GDP is likely to further shrink this year. The academy says it's important to explore new growth engines now and suggests that the government greatly encourage social investment.