By Xinhua writer Yang Shilong
NEW YORK, Feb. 9 (Xinhua) -- A constructive U.S.-China relation will stay strong and thrive in a long term even though there have been many talks of uncertainties under the Presidency of Donald Trump in relationship between the world's two largest economies, U.S. experts say.
An vastly important relationship beyond bilateral ties
"The U.S.-China relations are of vital importance and influence not only to themselves, but also to the world as a whole," Ezra Feivel Vogel, professor of the Social Sciences Emeritus at Harvard University, told Xinhua in fluent Mandarin in a recent interview.
Trump, one of the U.S. presidents with least public office experience, needs time to get familiar with foreign policy affairs, especially with the complexities of U.S.-China ties, Vogel said.
"Personally I think Trump has to choose to cooperate with China on major issues of domestic and global relevance, such as trade, investment and counterterrorism, to name just a few."
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger could agree no more.
"I am optimistic that the cooperative way will prevail. Keep in mind that if China and America are in conflict, then the whole world will be divided," he said at an event hosted by the Committee of 100 and the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.
"The peace and progress of the world depend on the abilities of the United States and China to respect each other's core interests, and to modify the core interests in order to make cooperation possible," Kissinger said when marking the 50th founding anniversary of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations (NCUSCR).
Exploring the potential for the U.S. and China to work together, where possible, on the One Belt One Road Initiative could "open windows for regional economic, political and commercial benefits to both counties," said Marc Grossman, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and Vice Chairman of the Cohen Group.
Adherence to One-China policy is crucial
Many prominent specialists on Chinese affairs have also joined chorus of opposition to Trump's questioning Washington's "one China policy" before taking office.
"Every president of both parties since 1971 has accepted this framework, and once that framework is studied, I do not expect it to be overturned ... To make Taiwan the key issue at the beginning of this dialogue is, in my view, unwise and not the most efficient way of proceeding," Kissinger said.
Michael Swaine, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, called Trump's phone call with Taiwan leader "reckless action."
"It would serve absolutely no U.S. interest, and raise many risks, for Trump to entertain such a fantasy," Swaine said.
"A needless blunder that foolishly complicates U.S.-China relations fails to advance U.S. interests, and calls into questioning the readiness of the Trump team to manage foreign policy," Avery Goldstein, political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said of Trump's Taiwan call.
The Trump administration should not abandon long-standing U.S. policy on the status of Taiwan, warned a bipartisan report issued on Tuesday, calling such a move "exceedingly dangerous."
The U.S.-China relations are at a "precarious crossroads" and the two world powers could be on a "collision course," said the report by an expert task force convened by the Asia Society and the University of California San Diego.
All-out Trade war with China hurts U.S. itself
Even though Trump and his trade team have been talking tough on trade ties with China, Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,said that an all-out trade war with China would hurt U.S. itself eventually.
"That is a situation many of my colleagues and I would not like to see," Prasad said.
The U.S. became the largest recipient of booming Chinese outbound FDI in 2016, with 45.6 billion dollars worth of completed acquisitions and greenfield investments, according to a new report by the research firm Rhodium Group released on Dec. 30, 2016.
However, the report noted that "the political realities on both sides pose a major downside risk to both pending transactions and new deal flow in coming months."
Cumulative Chinese direct investment in the U.S. economy since 2000 exceeds 100 billion dollars, it said.
Contrary to what critics say China is stealing U.S. jobs, the rising Asian power is helping create tremendous jobs for Americans.
"Just give you a sense of broader impact (of Chinese aviation market) on the U.S. economy. Deliveries to China by Boeing support approximately 150,000 U.S. jobs every year, that's an incredible number," said Raymond L. Conner, vice chairman of Boeing Co., the largest U.S. exporter.
Boeing has forecast that in the next 20 years, China will demand 6,810 new aircrafts with a total value of about 1 trillion U.S. dollars. This demand will make China the biggest customer of Boeing commercial airplanes.
Chinese customers are expected to take delivery of 30 percent of all Boeing's top-selling 737 models and about 25 percent of all aircraft produced in Washington State and South Carolina, Conner said. Closer people-to-people exchanges enhance bilateral ties.
"People-to-people exchanges between the two countries continue to strengthen even at a time we are having difficulties politically," Stephen A. Orlins, President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, told Xinhua at a reception in New York to raise funds to build a panda pavilion in the city's iconic Central Park on Wednesday.
"I believe we'll get to the promising land of a constructive U.S.- China relations in a long term," Orlins said.
The host of the Black & White Panda Ball is The Pandas Are Coming to NYC, a nonprofit group spearheaded by U.S. Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney together with Wall Street businessman Maurice R. Greenberg, Chinese fashion icon Yue-Sai Kan and billionaire Gristedes supermarket-chain owner John Catsimatidis in 2016.
The project has received support from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill de Blasio and Chinese Consulate General in New York.
"Pandas represent joy, love and friendship. It's a symbol of good luck, which our city can use more of," Maloney, who wore a black dress with white polka dots, said to guests at 45 tables in the Skylight Roof at the Waldorf Astoria New York hotel.
Three million mainland Chinese visited the United States in 2016, and about 950,000 made a trip to New York.
Over 300,000 Chinese students are studying in the U.S. and about 20,000 American students in China, Orlins noted, adding these young people who better understand each other's country will be "our successors" to promote U.S.-China friendship.
"That will help create a lasting bond for the two countries no matter what the government does," he said.
