Expert: 4th quarter GDP growth rate to surpass 10%

This year, China's fourth-quarter GDP growth is expected to surpass 10% and the annual GDP growth will reach 8.5% or so, Yu Bin, Director General of the Department of Macroeconomic Research at Development Research Centre of the State Council (DRC) said on November 21. He also added that China's macro economy should adopt "double stable" policy which means to maintain stable economic growth and stable price level next year.

Yu said, "Generally speaking, there is no possibility of major adjustment in the government's macroeconomic policy in 2010, and the government should continue to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. At the same time, China needs to leave some room for policy adjustments according to changes in domestic and international situation. "

Four-quarter GDP growth may reach 10%

While attending the 6th session of China's Economic Growth and Economic Security Strategy Forum, Yu Bin said that the Chinese government reduces the decline in exports' impact on the Chinese economy by increasing investment. But China's economic growth can not have long-term dependence on government investment, and the market-driven business investment and residents' consumption need to take over the government's investment expansion. Sustained economic recovery in the third quarter has laid a good foundation for the future development.

He pointed out that, four factors which are the sustained rapid growth in investment, the actual consumption growth reached record levels, the export share in the international market rose steadily, and steady rebound in industrial production support the strong revival in the Chinese economy, and this year's 4th quarter GDP growth is expected to reach 10% or even higher level. The annual economic growth will achieve slightly higher than the target of 8% and will remain at about 8.5%, while the growth in the first quarter of next year could be higher.

As a number of investment projects newly opened this year are long-term large-scale projects, such as railways, highways, airports, their construction and investment period is very long, thus the demand for capital is a continuous process, and large-scale investment may occur in the next year or even the year after next. Yu Bin thinks in order to guarantee the demand for capital of these projects, China is unlikely to make major adjustments in monetary policy.