Expert: U.S. victory in Afghanistan hinges on locals

WASHINGTON, July 24 (Xinhua) -- Winning the fight in Afghanistan depends on U.S. forces' ability to win over the local population, a U.S. expert has said.

"There's an old saying in counterinsurgency warfare -- It's necessary to win the hearts and minds," Andrew Krepinevich, president of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

Indeed, the sentiment is integral to executing U.S. President Barack Obama's new strategy, the first major test of which began earlier this month when 4,000 troops converged on the country's Helmand province.

The short-term strategy is to ramp up security there -- one of the country's most volatile areas -- and ensure that the August presidential elections go smoothly.

In the long term, it aims to boost the economy and improve the lives of those living in one of the world's most impoverished nations, said Krepinevich. Increased economic opportunities will prevent locals from joining the Taliban, the theory goes.

"The population provides the enemy with intelligence, with supplies, with recruits," said the expert. "But if you can win the population over to your side, you get the intelligence, you get the recruits ... If you win the people over, the Taliban can't win."

Critics said that Afghans are losing patience with U.S. forces, who have been at war there for the better part of a decade. Indeed, gaining Afghan trust could take years, even decades, they said. And time may be running out, as some U.S. lawmakers signaled they want to see progress by next year.

Krepinevich, however, said that Congress will give President Obama the time he needs if members see progress.

"One of the things that really hurt the Bush administration in Iraq was the sense that, after one year, after two years, people weren't seeing any progress," he said. "People were actually seeing things get worse instead of better."

One area where U.S. forces could make inroads is the agricultural sector. Currently, one of Afghanistan's major crops is poppies, from which narcotics such as heroin -- illegal in many countries -- are derived.

"If you can begin to develop an alternative economic model instead of the poppy crop ... you can enable farmers to make a living," said the expert, noting that doing so would replace terrorism with economic growth.

Just substituting one crop for another is apparently not enough. It is also crucial to develop infrastructure -- roads and transportation, for example -- that can help farmers bring their crops to urban markets.

"There's a whole series of events that have to take place," he said. "It's not just switching from one crop to another."